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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.96vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.42+6.91vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.79+4.64vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.16+2.34vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.62+3.49vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.29vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-0.43vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.84vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.44vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-1.74vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.58-2.49vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.90-5.07vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-2.42vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.98-7.07vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.72-3.44vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.41-3.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.2%1st Place
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8.91Fordham University1.425.0%1st Place
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7.64Cornell University1.797.3%1st Place
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6.34University of Pennsylvania2.1610.1%1st Place
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8.49Fordham University1.626.6%1st Place
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8.29SUNY Maritime College1.886.1%1st Place
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6.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1310.2%1st Place
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9.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.7%1st Place
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7.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.8%1st Place
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8.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.555.6%1st Place
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8.51University of Pennsylvania1.585.9%1st Place
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6.93University of Pennsylvania1.906.9%1st Place
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10.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.5%1st Place
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6.93Fordham University1.988.5%1st Place
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11.56SUNY Maritime College0.722.9%1st Place
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12.64SUNY Maritime College0.411.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| JJ Klempen | 10.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Lars Osell | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Cole Woodworth | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 6.9% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 12.6% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 16.0% | 21.2% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 34.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.