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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.79+6.42vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.42+6.73vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+4.37vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.62+4.41vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.16+1.01vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.18vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-0.69vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.58+0.50vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.71-1.28vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-3.28vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-1.27vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-1.63vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-4.87vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.94-5.68vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.41-2.40vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.72-4.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.42Cornell University1.797.5%1st Place
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8.73Fordham University1.424.9%1st Place
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7.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.9%1st Place
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8.41Fordham University1.625.1%1st Place
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6.01University of Pennsylvania2.1611.2%1st Place
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8.18SUNY Maritime College1.886.6%1st Place
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6.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1310.6%1st Place
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8.5University of Pennsylvania1.585.3%1st Place
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7.72University of Pennsylvania1.717.3%1st Place
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6.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1610.1%1st Place
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9.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.1%1st Place
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10.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.4%1st Place
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8.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.555.9%1st Place
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8.32Fordham University1.946.2%1st Place
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12.6SUNY Maritime College0.411.9%1st Place
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11.49SUNY Maritime College0.722.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sophia Devling | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
Beckett Kumler | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.8% |
Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
Jackson McAliley | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Spencer Barnes | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
JJ Klempen | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
Cole Woodworth | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
Benjamin Honig | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
Will Murray | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
Lars Osell | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.3% |
Reed McAllister | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 11.8% |
Jack Vanderhorst | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
Peter Lobaugh | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
Ben Hosford | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 33.7% |
Brooks Turcotte | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 21.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.