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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.45+4.78vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.23vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+1.09vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College-0.25+5.70vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.13+1.48vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.77-2.00vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+2.10vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-0.62vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.01vs Predicted
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10Fordham University-0.99+1.14vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania-0.40-0.94vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.16-6.17vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.71-6.08vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.52-1.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.78University of Pennsylvania1.459.0%1st Place
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4.23University of Pennsylvania1.7215.7%1st Place
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4.09Cornell University1.6817.8%1st Place
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9.7SUNY Maritime College-0.252.9%1st Place
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6.48Fordham University1.136.7%1st Place
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4.0University of Pennsylvania1.7718.4%1st Place
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9.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.5%1st Place
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7.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.565.3%1st Place
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7.99U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.294.0%1st Place
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11.14Fordham University-0.991.3%1st Place
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10.06University of Pennsylvania-0.402.0%1st Place
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5.83University of Pennsylvania1.168.3%1st Place
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6.92Fordham University0.715.5%1st Place
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12.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.520.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 15.7% | 14.8% | 15.2% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 17.8% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 16.6% | 15.2% | 7.8% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 18.4% | 15.2% | 16.4% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 4.9% |
| Brook Wood | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Samantha Hemans | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 24.2% | 24.3% |
| Annabelle Brameld | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 10.4% |
| Adra Ivancich | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 10.1% | 19.1% | 48.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.