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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.79+6.52vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.77vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.71+4.70vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.16+2.04vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+3.19vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.58+2.52vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+3.52vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.62+0.28vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.50vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-0.17vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.42-2.46vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.88-4.06vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.94-4.60vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.72-2.53vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-8.67vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.41-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.52Cornell University1.797.5%1st Place
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6.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.8%1st Place
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7.7University of Pennsylvania1.718.1%1st Place
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6.04University of Pennsylvania2.1611.1%1st Place
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8.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.555.9%1st Place
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8.52University of Pennsylvania1.585.2%1st Place
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10.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.4%1st Place
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8.28Fordham University1.626.3%1st Place
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7.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.4%1st Place
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9.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.2%1st Place
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8.54Fordham University1.425.3%1st Place
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7.94SUNY Maritime College1.886.6%1st Place
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8.4Fordham University1.945.5%1st Place
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11.47SUNY Maritime College0.722.5%1st Place
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6.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1311.2%1st Place
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12.46SUNY Maritime College0.412.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Will Murray | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Benjamin Honig | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 12.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 2.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Lars Osell | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% |
| Beckett Kumler | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 15.8% | 19.8% |
| JJ Klempen | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 32.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.