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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.45+4.91vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.24vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+1.03vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.71+2.91vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.77-0.96vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+2.14vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.16-1.43vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.13-1.60vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-1.52vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-0.88vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.52+1.29vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.25-2.31vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania-0.40-3.09vs Predicted
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14Fordham University-0.99-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.91University of Pennsylvania1.458.6%1st Place
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4.24University of Pennsylvania1.7216.0%1st Place
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4.03Cornell University1.6817.2%1st Place
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6.91Fordham University0.716.9%1st Place
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4.04University of Pennsylvania1.7717.2%1st Place
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8.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.5%1st Place
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5.57University of Pennsylvania1.169.2%1st Place
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6.4Fordham University1.137.8%1st Place
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7.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.564.7%1st Place
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9.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.8%1st Place
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12.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.520.7%1st Place
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9.69SUNY Maritime College-0.252.2%1st Place
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9.91University of Pennsylvania-0.402.2%1st Place
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11.26Fordham University-0.991.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Madeleine Rice | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
Torrey Chisari | 16.0% | 16.0% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
J.J. Smith | 17.2% | 17.2% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Lizzie Cochran | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
Sofia Segalla | 17.2% | 18.0% | 15.0% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Annika VanderHorst | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 2.2% |
Adra Ivancich | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
Elizabeth Cutler | 7.8% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
Brook Wood | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
Katherine Mason | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% |
Bennett O'Keefe | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 10.5% | 17.9% | 48.7% |
Rebecca Runyan | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 15.6% | 15.3% | 7.5% |
Annabelle Brameld | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 16.4% | 15.8% | 9.0% |
Samantha Hemans | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 23.8% | 25.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.