Race 3A

delaware-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Charlotte Stillman 9.7% 11.3% 13.3% 14.8% 13.9% 12.6% 12.0% 6.5% 4.3% 1.3% 0.2%
Mac Fitzgerald 3.3% 4.0% 4.5% 5.5% 7.0% 8.9% 10.5% 15.2% 17.1% 16.2% 7.7%
Rose von Eckartsberg 3.5% 4.2% 4.3% 6.2% 7.6% 9.6% 11.5% 14.6% 16.2% 15.7% 6.6%
Iain Shand 20.2% 21.9% 18.2% 15.2% 10.8% 6.3% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Sophie Grigg 9.7% 10.5% 11.7% 13.3% 12.5% 12.9% 11.5% 8.9% 5.9% 2.6% 0.6%
Olivia Coffill 8.2% 8.4% 11.8% 11.8% 12.9% 13.9% 11.8% 10.0% 7.6% 3.0% 0.7%
Robert Riecker 33.2% 24.3% 18.2% 11.5% 6.7% 3.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Hannah Arey 7.0% 8.1% 9.2% 10.4% 13.5% 14.5% 13.8% 10.1% 7.6% 4.5% 1.4%
Ethan Deutsch 2.6% 4.2% 4.3% 6.8% 8.9% 8.8% 12.2% 15.8% 16.4% 14.1% 5.9%
Alice Kilkelly 1.7% 2.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.9% 6.0% 7.1% 11.4% 14.7% 23.7% 23.1%
Ella Dieterlen 0.9% 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% 2.4% 2.6% 3.6% 5.0% 9.2% 18.8% 53.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.