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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.16+5.13vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+5.49vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+6.75vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.72vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.02vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.71+1.74vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+1.09vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.62+0.37vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.58-0.53vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.58vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.42-2.20vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-1.65vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.72-1.56vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.94-5.56vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-8.73vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.41-3.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13University of Pennsylvania2.1610.7%1st Place
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7.49Cornell University1.798.2%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.3%1st Place
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6.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.169.5%1st Place
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8.02SUNY Maritime College1.885.8%1st Place
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7.74University of Pennsylvania1.717.3%1st Place
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8.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.555.7%1st Place
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8.37Fordham University1.626.6%1st Place
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8.47University of Pennsylvania1.585.1%1st Place
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7.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.777.8%1st Place
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8.8Fordham University1.424.9%1st Place
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10.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.6%1st Place
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11.44SUNY Maritime College0.722.9%1st Place
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8.44Fordham University1.945.4%1st Place
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6.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1310.4%1st Place
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12.49SUNY Maritime College0.411.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jackson McAliley | 10.7% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
Sophia Devling | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
Lars Osell | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 7.6% |
Will Murray | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
Spencer Barnes | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
Benjamin Honig | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
Jack Vanderhorst | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
Patrick Dolan | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
Cole Woodworth | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.2% |
Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
Beckett Kumler | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
Reed McAllister | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 11.8% |
Brooks Turcotte | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 14.7% | 19.8% |
Peter Lobaugh | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
JJ Klempen | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Ben Hosford | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 34.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.