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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.78vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+5.46vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.98vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.62+4.29vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.42+3.72vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.16+0.12vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+2.74vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.72+3.39vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-0.79vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+0.48vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College0.41+1.59vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.58-3.53vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.71-5.41vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-6.67vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-8.48vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.94-7.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.169.1%1st Place
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7.46Cornell University1.798.2%1st Place
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7.98SUNY Maritime College1.886.6%1st Place
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8.29Fordham University1.625.5%1st Place
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8.72Fordham University1.424.9%1st Place
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6.12University of Pennsylvania2.1611.3%1st Place
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9.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.2%1st Place
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11.39SUNY Maritime College0.723.1%1st Place
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8.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.556.0%1st Place
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10.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.2%1st Place
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12.59SUNY Maritime College0.411.6%1st Place
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8.47University of Pennsylvania1.585.6%1st Place
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7.59University of Pennsylvania1.717.3%1st Place
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7.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.778.2%1st Place
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6.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.139.4%1st Place
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8.35Fordham University1.945.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Murray | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
Sophia Devling | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
Spencer Barnes | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
Patrick Dolan | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
Beckett Kumler | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.1% |
Jackson McAliley | 11.3% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Lars Osell | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% |
Brooks Turcotte | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 19.6% |
Jack Vanderhorst | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
Reed McAllister | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 11.2% |
Ben Hosford | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 33.4% |
Cole Woodworth | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% |
Benjamin Honig | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
JJ Klempen | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
Peter Lobaugh | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.