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📊 Prediction Accuracy
6.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.62+7.08vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+5.11vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.49vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+3.65vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.71+2.25vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.42+2.55vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+2.28vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+2.20vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.16-3.15vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.41+2.04vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.94-3.07vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.58-4.18vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.41-0.90vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.72-2.88vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.88-7.46vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-9.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.08Fordham University1.626.5%1st Place
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7.11Cornell University1.798.0%1st Place
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6.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.169.8%1st Place
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7.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.557.1%1st Place
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7.25University of Pennsylvania1.718.3%1st Place
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8.55Fordham University1.425.9%1st Place
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9.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.5%1st Place
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10.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.4%1st Place
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5.85University of Pennsylvania2.1610.8%1st Place
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12.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.411.9%1st Place
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7.93Fordham University1.946.2%1st Place
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7.82University of Pennsylvania1.586.3%1st Place
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12.1SUNY Maritime College0.412.4%1st Place
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11.12SUNY Maritime College0.722.4%1st Place
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7.54SUNY Maritime College1.887.2%1st Place
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7.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.779.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Dolan | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
Sophia Devling | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
Will Murray | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
Jack Vanderhorst | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
Benjamin Honig | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
Beckett Kumler | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
Lars Osell | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.9% |
Reed McAllister | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 8.5% |
Jackson McAliley | 10.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Cooper Delbridge | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 24.9% |
Peter Lobaugh | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
Cole Woodworth | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
Ben Hosford | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 16.1% | 28.6% |
Brooks Turcotte | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 15.7% |
Spencer Barnes | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.