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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.68+3.06vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.45+3.88vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.03vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.13+2.35vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+3.04vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.72-1.73vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania-0.40+2.86vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.25+1.76vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-1.58vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.52+2.29vs Predicted
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11Fordham University-0.99+0.40vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.71-5.16vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.16-7.28vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-4.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.06Cornell University1.6818.6%1st Place
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5.88University of Pennsylvania1.458.0%1st Place
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4.03University of Pennsylvania1.7718.7%1st Place
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6.35Fordham University1.136.6%1st Place
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8.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.3%1st Place
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4.27University of Pennsylvania1.7215.1%1st Place
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9.86University of Pennsylvania-0.401.9%1st Place
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9.76SUNY Maritime College-0.252.1%1st Place
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7.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.565.7%1st Place
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12.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.520.6%1st Place
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11.4Fordham University-0.991.1%1st Place
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6.84Fordham University0.717.0%1st Place
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5.72University of Pennsylvania1.168.8%1st Place
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9.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J.J. Smith | 18.6% | 15.9% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Madeleine Rice | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
Sofia Segalla | 18.7% | 16.4% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Elizabeth Cutler | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
Annika VanderHorst | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
Torrey Chisari | 15.1% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Annabelle Brameld | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 16.3% | 8.2% |
Rebecca Runyan | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 16.2% | 15.3% | 8.2% |
Brook Wood | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
Bennett O'Keefe | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 19.6% | 48.1% |
Samantha Hemans | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 23.1% | 27.0% |
Lizzie Cochran | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
Adra Ivancich | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Katherine Mason | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.