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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.42+6.81vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.58+5.43vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.79vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.01vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.16+0.48vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.62+1.34vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.00+2.58vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.71-1.19vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.98-2.88vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.99-0.47vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-2.35vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.41-0.68vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.72-2.61vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-4.49vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-7.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.81Fordham University1.426.3%1st Place
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7.43University of Pennsylvania1.587.3%1st Place
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5.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1611.3%1st Place
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7.01SUNY Maritime College1.887.4%1st Place
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5.48University of Pennsylvania2.1612.0%1st Place
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7.34Fordham University1.627.4%1st Place
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9.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.003.2%1st Place
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6.81University of Pennsylvania1.719.3%1st Place
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6.12Fordham University1.9810.3%1st Place
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9.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.994.0%1st Place
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8.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.225.1%1st Place
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11.32SUNY Maritime College0.412.7%1st Place
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10.39SUNY Maritime College0.722.9%1st Place
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9.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.993.6%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.557.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beckett Kumler | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| Cole Woodworth | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| Will Murray | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Jackson McAliley | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 9.9% |
| Benjamin Honig | 9.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| Jacob Zils | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Walker | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% |
| Lars Osell | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 14.4% | 29.5% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 17.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 10.0% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.