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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.68+3.13vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.56vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.45+2.91vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.26vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.71+2.12vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56+1.74vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.13-0.25vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania0.81-1.10vs Predicted
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9Fordham University-0.99+2.33vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10-0.59vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.25-0.86vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.16-6.05vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.52-0.46vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-5.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.13Cornell University1.6816.8%1st Place
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4.56University of Pennsylvania1.7214.4%1st Place
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5.91University of Pennsylvania1.458.8%1st Place
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4.26University of Pennsylvania1.7717.8%1st Place
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7.12Fordham University0.715.7%1st Place
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7.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.564.6%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University1.136.5%1st Place
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6.9University of Pennsylvania0.816.8%1st Place
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11.33Fordham University-0.991.9%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.5%1st Place
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10.14SUNY Maritime College-0.252.1%1st Place
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5.95University of Pennsylvania1.167.7%1st Place
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12.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges-1.520.6%1st Place
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8.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.293.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Smith | 16.8% | 16.3% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 14.4% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Sofia Segalla | 17.8% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Brook Wood | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Margaux Cowles | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Samantha Hemans | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 23.6% | 27.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 15.2% | 5.1% |
| Rebecca Runyan | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 16.7% | 19.5% | 10.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.7% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Bennett O'Keefe | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 19.8% | 51.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.