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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.44+2.55vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.74+3.19vs Predicted
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3University of Buffalo2.44+3.12vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.71+4.47vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia1.66+3.69vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.10+1.22vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-3.18vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13+2.32vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.01-1.52vs Predicted
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10University of Maryland2.18-2.89vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology0.25+1.55vs Predicted
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12Colgate University0.89-0.81vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.38-6.44vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University0.43-1.90vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.32-5.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.55U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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5.19SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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6.12University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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8.47Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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8.69University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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7.22SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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3.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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10.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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7.48Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.11University of Maryland2.180.1%1st Place
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12.55Rochester Institute of Technology0.250.0%1st Place
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11.19Colgate University0.890.0%1st Place
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6.56George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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12.1Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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9.62Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Popp | 23.0% | 20.3% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 11.4% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 8.8% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 1.6% |
| Domenic Re | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 2.5% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Elliott Morrill | 19.6% | 17.2% | 16.8% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Baransky | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
| Edward Titcomb | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Joshua Prucnal | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Christiani | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 18.2% | 37.2% |
| Jeffrey Gordon | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 16.8% | 14.9% |
| Ian Connors | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 20.6% | 27.5% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 5.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.