← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy3.44+2.52vs Predicted
-
2University of Maryland2.18+4.87vs Predicted
-
3George Washington University2.38+3.28vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College2.74+1.31vs Predicted
-
5SUNY Maritime College2.10+2.31vs Predicted
-
6Fordham University2.01+1.55vs Predicted
-
7University of Buffalo2.44-0.82vs Predicted
-
8Syracuse University0.43+4.11vs Predicted
-
9Rochester Institute of Technology0.25+3.59vs Predicted
-
11Webb Institute1.71-2.46vs Predicted
-
12Colgate University0.89-1.05vs Predicted
-
13University of Virginia1.66-4.15vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-3.55vs Predicted
-
15Cornell University1.32-5.36vs Predicted
-
16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-12.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.52U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
-
6.87University of Maryland2.180.1%1st Place
-
6.28George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
-
5.31SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
-
7.31SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
-
7.55Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
-
6.18University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
-
12.11Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
-
12.59Rochester Institute of Technology0.250.0%1st Place
-
8.54Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
-
10.95Colgate University0.890.0%1st Place
-
8.85University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
-
10.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
-
9.64Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
-
3.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Popp | 23.3% | 20.4% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Prucnal | 6.3% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Ian Connors | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Edward Titcomb | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Griffin Orr | 9.5% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Harmen Rockler | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 12.5% | 20.5% | 28.4% |
| Daniel Christiani | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 19.3% | 35.8% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Jeffrey Gordon | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 15.7% | 14.4% |
| Domenic Re | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 2.5% |
| Andrew Baransky | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 10.1% |
| Bradley Barth | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 4.9% |
| Elliott Morrill | 19.3% | 19.5% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.