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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.44+2.49vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+1.73vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.32+6.60vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.71+4.49vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13+5.30vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.01+1.58vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.74-1.65vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia1.66+0.65vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland2.18-2.05vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.38-3.54vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.10-3.69vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo2.44-5.54vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology0.25-1.35vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University0.43-2.92vs Predicted
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16Colgate University0.89-5.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.49U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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3.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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9.6Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
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8.49Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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10.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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7.58Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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5.35SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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8.65University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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6.95University of Maryland2.180.1%1st Place
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6.46George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.31SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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6.46University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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12.65Rochester Institute of Technology0.250.0%1st Place
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12.08Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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10.9Colgate University0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Popp | 23.4% | 20.9% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 22.0% | 19.1% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 5.4% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% |
| Andrew Baransky | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 9.3% |
| Edward Titcomb | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Mike Carr | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Domenic Re | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Joshua Prucnal | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Ian Connors | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Griffin Orr | 6.3% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Daniel Christiani | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 13.4% | 18.0% | 38.2% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 21.2% | 26.8% |
| Jeffrey Gordon | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 18.2% | 12.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.