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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+4.60vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.85+4.66vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+4.07vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.78+3.98vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+2.69vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.02+2.77vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.71+3.53vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.85-1.96vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College1.95+0.25vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-2.46vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.40-3.61vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.49-0.86vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.22-4.67vs Predicted
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14Olin College of Engineering0.22+1.07vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.72-1.49vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.88-2.39vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University0.73-3.17vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.39-7.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.6Yale University2.4212.7%1st Place
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6.66Brown University2.858.8%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.6%1st Place
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7.98University of Rhode Island2.786.8%1st Place
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7.69Bowdoin College2.387.1%1st Place
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8.77Boston College2.025.0%1st Place
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10.53Northeastern University1.713.2%1st Place
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6.04Yale University2.8511.8%1st Place
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9.25Dartmouth College1.955.2%1st Place
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7.54Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.8%1st Place
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7.39Roger Williams University2.407.8%1st Place
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11.14Northwestern University1.493.1%1st Place
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8.33Brown University2.225.1%1st Place
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15.07Olin College of Engineering0.220.9%1st Place
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13.51University of Vermont0.721.5%1st Place
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13.61Connecticut College0.880.9%1st Place
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13.83Fairfield University0.731.6%1st Place
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10.98Boston University1.392.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 12.7% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Will Priebe | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 1.8% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.8% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% |
| Mason Stang | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| James Jagielski | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 11.3% | 18.9% | 35.9% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 17.4% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 18.3% | 16.4% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 17.8% | 18.4% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.