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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.76vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.38+4.23vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia1.66+5.58vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.74+1.33vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.44-1.35vs Predicted
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6University of Maryland2.18+1.01vs Predicted
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7University of Buffalo2.44-0.82vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.10-0.73vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University0.43+3.16vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.71-1.48vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.32-1.28vs Predicted
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12Colgate University0.89-0.80vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-2.58vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.01-7.47vs Predicted
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16Rochester Institute of Technology0.25-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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6.23George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.58University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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5.33SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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3.65U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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7.01University of Maryland2.180.1%1st Place
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6.18University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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7.27SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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12.16Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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8.52Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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9.72Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
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11.2Colgate University0.890.0%1st Place
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10.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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7.53Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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12.46Rochester Institute of Technology0.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 20.0% | 21.5% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Connors | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Domenic Re | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 1.4% |
| Mike Carr | 11.4% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 21.2% | 17.4% | 17.3% | 13.3% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Prucnal | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Griffin Orr | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 13.9% | 18.7% | 28.5% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 2.2% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 6.7% |
| Jeffrey Gordon | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 18.1% | 14.2% |
| Andrew Baransky | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 14.5% | 12.9% | 9.9% |
| Edward Titcomb | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Christiani | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 20.1% | 35.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.