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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.44+2.58vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.74+3.22vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia1.66+5.57vs Predicted
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4University of Maryland2.18+3.00vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.10+2.30vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32-2.21vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.01+0.52vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo2.44-1.77vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13+1.26vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology0.25+2.53vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.71-2.46vs Predicted
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13Syracuse University0.43-0.64vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.38-7.39vs Predicted
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15Colgate University0.89-4.10vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.32-6.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.58U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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5.22SUNY Maritime College2.740.1%1st Place
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8.57University of Virginia1.660.0%1st Place
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7.0University of Maryland2.180.1%1st Place
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7.3SUNY Maritime College2.100.1%1st Place
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3.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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7.52Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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6.23University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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10.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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12.53Rochester Institute of Technology0.250.0%1st Place
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8.54Webb Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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12.36Syracuse University0.430.0%1st Place
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6.61George Washington University2.380.1%1st Place
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10.9Colgate University0.890.0%1st Place
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9.6Cornell University1.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Popp | 22.4% | 19.4% | 15.5% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 10.4% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Domenic Re | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Joshua Prucnal | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Nilsen | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Elliott Morrill | 19.1% | 17.9% | 15.2% | 14.5% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Titcomb | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Griffin Orr | 8.0% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Baransky | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 6.6% |
| Daniel Christiani | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 18.4% | 37.8% |
| Nathan Fast | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| Harmen Rockler | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 21.5% | 29.3% |
| Ian Connors | 7.4% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Jeffrey Gordon | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 15.7% | 14.0% |
| Bradley Barth | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.