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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+5.05vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+5.81vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+3.76vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.85+2.62vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.42+0.77vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.40+1.41vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.53vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.38-0.30vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.71+1.68vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.22-1.81vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College1.95-1.60vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.02-3.55vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.72+0.78vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.88-0.26vs Predicted
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15Fairfield University0.73-1.30vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.39-4.90vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering0.22-1.93vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.49-6.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05Yale University2.8510.7%1st Place
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7.81University of Rhode Island2.786.8%1st Place
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6.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.1%1st Place
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6.62Brown University2.8510.1%1st Place
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5.77Yale University2.4211.9%1st Place
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7.41Roger Williams University2.407.8%1st Place
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7.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.2%1st Place
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7.7Bowdoin College2.386.4%1st Place
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10.68Northeastern University1.713.7%1st Place
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8.19Brown University2.226.2%1st Place
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9.4Dartmouth College1.954.7%1st Place
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8.45Boston College2.026.2%1st Place
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13.78University of Vermont0.721.3%1st Place
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13.74Connecticut College0.881.2%1st Place
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13.7Fairfield University0.731.6%1st Place
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11.1Boston University1.392.7%1st Place
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15.07Olin College of Engineering0.220.9%1st Place
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11.25Northwestern University1.492.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Will Priebe | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Mason Stang | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Jack Redmond | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 17.8% | 17.2% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 17.1% | 16.7% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 16.1% | 16.6% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| James Jagielski | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 12.0% | 17.6% | 35.8% |
| Shea Smith | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.