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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+6.62vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.42+3.74vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.85+3.65vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+3.49vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+1.85vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+1.90vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College1.95+2.22vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.02+0.45vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.40-1.73vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.49+1.32vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.22-2.64vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.71-1.43vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.85-6.99vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.39-2.91vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.72-1.35vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.88-2.25vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering0.22-1.88vs Predicted
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18Fairfield University0.73-4.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.62Bowdoin College2.387.1%1st Place
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5.74Yale University2.4212.1%1st Place
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6.65Brown University2.858.9%1st Place
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7.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.4%1st Place
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6.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.3%1st Place
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7.9University of Rhode Island2.786.5%1st Place
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9.22Dartmouth College1.954.4%1st Place
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8.45Boston College2.025.9%1st Place
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7.27Roger Williams University2.408.0%1st Place
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11.32Northwestern University1.493.2%1st Place
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8.36Brown University2.226.0%1st Place
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10.57Northeastern University1.713.5%1st Place
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6.01Yale University2.8511.1%1st Place
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11.09Boston University1.392.6%1st Place
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13.65University of Vermont0.721.8%1st Place
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13.75Connecticut College0.881.5%1st Place
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15.12Olin College of Engineering0.220.6%1st Place
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13.95Fairfield University0.731.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Carmen Cowles | 12.1% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% |
| Mason Stang | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Will Priebe | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 1.8% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 3.2% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
| James Jagielski | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 18.6% | 35.3% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 17.2% | 19.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.