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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+6.48vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.38+5.66vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+5.12vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.42+1.58vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.02+3.69vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+0.78vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.71+3.71vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.72+5.72vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.85-3.02vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.22-1.60vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.39-0.14vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.49-0.67vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.40-5.61vs Predicted
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14Fairfield University0.73-0.29vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College1.95-5.82vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering0.22-0.82vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.88-3.51vs Predicted
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18Brown University2.85-11.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.48Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.1%1st Place
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7.66Bowdoin College2.387.6%1st Place
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8.12University of Rhode Island2.785.8%1st Place
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5.58Yale University2.4211.2%1st Place
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8.69Boston College2.025.8%1st Place
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6.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.9%1st Place
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10.71Northeastern University1.713.5%1st Place
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13.72University of Vermont0.721.7%1st Place
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5.98Yale University2.8511.2%1st Place
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8.4Brown University2.225.9%1st Place
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10.86Boston University1.392.9%1st Place
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11.33Northwestern University1.493.2%1st Place
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7.39Roger Williams University2.407.5%1st Place
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13.71Fairfield University0.731.6%1st Place
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9.18Dartmouth College1.954.9%1st Place
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15.18Olin College of Engineering0.220.9%1st Place
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13.49Connecticut College0.881.7%1st Place
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6.74Brown University2.858.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bruce | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.2% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Will Priebe | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 2.2% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mason Stang | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 3.0% |
| Shea Smith | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 3.5% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| James Jagielski | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 18.3% | 36.6% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 15.7% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.