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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.22+7.29vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+5.47vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.85+3.00vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.02+4.62vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+2.61vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+0.89vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.42-1.36vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.40-0.67vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.49+2.23vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.78-1.91vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.71-0.48vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University0.73+1.74vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.85-6.25vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College1.95-4.42vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.72-1.49vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering0.22-0.90vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.39-6.09vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.88-4.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.29Brown University2.226.0%1st Place
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7.47Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.6%1st Place
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6.0Yale University2.8510.9%1st Place
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8.62Boston College2.026.6%1st Place
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7.61Bowdoin College2.386.9%1st Place
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6.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.1%1st Place
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5.64Yale University2.4212.2%1st Place
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7.33Roger Williams University2.408.1%1st Place
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11.23Northwestern University1.492.4%1st Place
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8.09University of Rhode Island2.786.5%1st Place
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10.52Northeastern University1.713.2%1st Place
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13.74Fairfield University0.731.2%1st Place
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6.75Brown University2.859.1%1st Place
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9.58Dartmouth College1.954.3%1st Place
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13.51University of Vermont0.721.2%1st Place
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15.1Olin College of Engineering0.220.9%1st Place
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10.91Boston University1.393.1%1st Place
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13.71Connecticut College0.881.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 12.2% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Will Priebe | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 2.7% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 16.5% | 19.9% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 16.5% |
| James Jagielski | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 17.0% | 35.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 2.5% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 17.1% | 16.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.