Race 11A

maritime-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Elliott Morrill 19.4% 19.0% 16.4% 16.0% 11.0% 7.5% 5.0% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Michael Popp 25.0% 20.5% 15.5% 12.7% 10.7% 8.2% 3.4% 2.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 9.8% 8.4% 9.9% 10.5% 10.6% 11.2% 12.8% 11.1% 7.9% 4.9% 2.1% 0.8%
Mike Carr 9.4% 14.8% 12.8% 12.3% 12.9% 10.8% 9.9% 7.7% 5.4% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Joshua Prucnal 7.0% 7.1% 8.0% 9.5% 9.3% 11.9% 11.2% 10.8% 11.1% 7.9% 4.4% 1.8%
Edward Titcomb 6.0% 6.7% 6.6% 6.7% 8.9% 10.9% 11.6% 11.3% 13.0% 9.5% 7.0% 1.8%
Ian Connors 9.3% 8.1% 11.4% 10.8% 11.0% 11.0% 11.1% 10.1% 7.7% 5.4% 3.1% 1.0%
Bradley Barth 3.0% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0% 5.1% 6.6% 7.4% 10.5% 12.3% 16.4% 17.2% 9.9%
Matthew Nilsen 5.5% 5.8% 8.6% 9.6% 11.6% 10.6% 11.2% 12.4% 10.9% 9.2% 3.5% 1.1%
Andrew Baransky 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.7% 3.6% 5.5% 7.5% 8.1% 12.4% 17.5% 17.6% 15.4%
Harmen Rockler 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% 1.6% 2.1% 3.1% 3.8% 4.7% 6.1% 11.6% 20.5% 43.0%
Caroline Libby 1.4% 1.9% 2.9% 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 5.1% 7.5% 10.5% 13.7% 23.6% 24.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.