← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University2.85+5.58vs Predicted
-
2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+5.51vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+3.91vs Predicted
-
4Bowdoin College2.38+3.36vs Predicted
-
5Yale University2.42+0.75vs Predicted
-
6University of Rhode Island2.78+1.87vs Predicted
-
7Yale University2.85-1.12vs Predicted
-
8Northeastern University1.71+2.70vs Predicted
-
9Brown University2.22-0.71vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University2.40-2.71vs Predicted
-
11Dartmouth College1.95-1.64vs Predicted
-
12University of Vermont0.72+1.75vs Predicted
-
13Boston College2.02-4.24vs Predicted
-
14Boston University1.39-2.85vs Predicted
-
15Fairfield University0.73-1.30vs Predicted
-
16Northwestern University1.49-4.71vs Predicted
-
17Connecticut College0.88-3.26vs Predicted
-
18Olin College of Engineering0.22-2.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.58Brown University2.858.8%1st Place
-
7.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.7%1st Place
-
6.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.489.3%1st Place
-
7.36Bowdoin College2.387.5%1st Place
-
5.75Yale University2.4212.2%1st Place
-
7.87University of Rhode Island2.786.7%1st Place
-
5.88Yale University2.8512.3%1st Place
-
10.7Northeastern University1.713.0%1st Place
-
8.29Brown University2.225.0%1st Place
-
7.29Roger Williams University2.408.0%1st Place
-
9.36Dartmouth College1.954.9%1st Place
-
13.75University of Vermont0.721.3%1st Place
-
8.76Boston College2.026.2%1st Place
-
11.15Boston University1.392.5%1st Place
-
13.7Fairfield University0.731.3%1st Place
-
11.29Northwestern University1.492.5%1st Place
-
13.74Connecticut College0.881.2%1st Place
-
15.12Olin College of Engineering0.220.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Priebe | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 2.6% |
| Mason Stang | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 17.8% | 16.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 2.5% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 17.0% | 17.8% |
| Shea Smith | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 3.8% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
| James Jagielski | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 16.8% | 37.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.