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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.39+5.53vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.55+4.00vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.87vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.71+1.50vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.61+4.69vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+2.70vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.82+2.03vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.09-0.17vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.27+5.40vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.37-3.54vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.06-3.26vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.07-0.56vs Predicted
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13Olin College of Engineering0.46+0.64vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.87-1.73vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.84-6.32vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University0.42-3.11vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.51-5.75vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.07-5.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.53Dartmouth College2.399.6%1st Place
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6.0Yale University2.5510.8%1st Place
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6.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.6%1st Place
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5.5Yale University2.7112.8%1st Place
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9.69University of Rhode Island1.614.7%1st Place
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8.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.935.1%1st Place
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9.03Brown University1.825.0%1st Place
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7.83Boston College2.096.7%1st Place
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14.4Connecticut College0.271.1%1st Place
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6.46Brown University2.379.5%1st Place
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7.74Bowdoin College2.067.4%1st Place
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11.44Northeastern University1.072.5%1st Place
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13.64Olin College of Engineering0.461.5%1st Place
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12.27University of Vermont0.871.9%1st Place
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8.68Roger Williams University1.846.1%1st Place
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12.89Fairfield University0.421.8%1st Place
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11.25Tufts University1.512.9%1st Place
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12.07Boston University1.072.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emma Cowles | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 12.8% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Miles Williams | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Maks Groom | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Styron | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 16.4% | 31.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 5.8% |
| Peter Schnell | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 16.3% | 20.2% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 9.2% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 15.5% |
| Connor Rosow | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| Porter Bell | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.