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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.39+5.31vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.55+3.91vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.82+6.05vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+2.82vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+3.78vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.71-0.66vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.61+2.73vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University1.84+0.58vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.07+2.47vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.37-3.42vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.09-3.22vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.87+0.05vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.51-1.77vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.27+0.54vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.07-2.77vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University0.42-3.08vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.06-9.40vs Predicted
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18Olin College of Engineering0.46-3.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.31Dartmouth College2.3910.4%1st Place
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5.91Yale University2.5512.2%1st Place
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9.05Brown University1.825.3%1st Place
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6.82U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.5%1st Place
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8.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.934.8%1st Place
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5.34Yale University2.7113.8%1st Place
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9.73University of Rhode Island1.613.9%1st Place
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8.58Roger Williams University1.844.8%1st Place
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11.47Northeastern University1.072.9%1st Place
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6.58Brown University2.379.7%1st Place
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7.78Boston College2.096.3%1st Place
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12.05University of Vermont0.872.6%1st Place
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11.23Tufts University1.511.8%1st Place
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14.54Connecticut College0.270.8%1st Place
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12.23Boston University1.071.8%1st Place
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12.92Fairfield University0.421.6%1st Place
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7.6Bowdoin College2.067.8%1st Place
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14.05Olin College of Engineering0.461.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emma Cowles | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Maks Groom | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 13.8% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 5.5% |
| Blake Behrens | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 8.3% |
| Connor Rosow | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 16.1% | 32.1% |
| Porter Bell | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.0% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 13.7% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Peter Schnell | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 17.7% | 21.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.