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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.39+5.35vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.71+3.50vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.92vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+4.61vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.61+4.70vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.09+1.85vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.07+4.35vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.82+0.93vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.37-2.49vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.84-1.36vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.87+1.32vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.55-6.08vs Predicted
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13Fairfield University0.42+0.07vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.06-6.26vs Predicted
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15Olin College of Engineering0.46-1.39vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.07-3.83vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.27-2.49vs Predicted
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18Tufts University1.51-6.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.35Dartmouth College2.3910.4%1st Place
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5.5Yale University2.7112.2%1st Place
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6.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.329.4%1st Place
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8.61Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.935.3%1st Place
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9.7University of Rhode Island1.614.5%1st Place
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7.85Boston College2.097.1%1st Place
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11.35Northeastern University1.072.9%1st Place
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8.93Brown University1.824.9%1st Place
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6.51Brown University2.379.9%1st Place
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8.64Roger Williams University1.845.2%1st Place
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12.32University of Vermont0.872.1%1st Place
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5.92Yale University2.5510.4%1st Place
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13.07Fairfield University0.421.5%1st Place
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7.74Bowdoin College2.066.9%1st Place
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13.61Olin College of Engineering0.462.1%1st Place
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12.17Boston University1.071.9%1st Place
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14.51Connecticut College0.271.0%1st Place
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11.29Tufts University1.512.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Maks Groom | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Miles Williams | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.0% |
| Thomas Styron | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.1% |
| Emma Cowles | 10.4% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Peter Schnell | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 15.0% | 19.9% |
| Porter Bell | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 8.1% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 31.6% |
| Connor Rosow | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.