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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.55+4.89vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.09+5.73vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.71+2.68vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.51+7.15vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.07+6.35vs Predicted
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6Olin College of Engineering0.46+7.57vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.84+1.60vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.39-1.55vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University0.42+4.13vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.42-0.22vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.27+3.44vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.82-3.05vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-6.15vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-5.30vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.87-2.57vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.37-9.43vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.06-9.39vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.07-5.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.89Yale University2.5510.8%1st Place
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7.73Boston College2.096.9%1st Place
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5.68Yale University2.7111.8%1st Place
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11.15Tufts University1.513.1%1st Place
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11.35Northeastern University1.072.9%1st Place
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13.57Olin College of Engineering0.461.6%1st Place
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8.6Roger Williams University1.844.8%1st Place
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6.45Dartmouth College2.399.8%1st Place
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13.13Fairfield University0.421.6%1st Place
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9.78University of Rhode Island1.424.2%1st Place
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14.44Connecticut College0.271.1%1st Place
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8.95Brown University1.824.7%1st Place
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6.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.329.0%1st Place
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8.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.935.5%1st Place
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12.43University of Vermont0.872.3%1st Place
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6.57Brown University2.3710.2%1st Place
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7.61Bowdoin College2.067.5%1st Place
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12.12Boston University1.072.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Rosow | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 4.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 5.2% |
| Peter Schnell | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 20.4% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 14.3% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 10.7% | 17.1% | 31.7% |
| Thomas Styron | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Maks Groom | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 10.4% |
| Blake Behrens | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Porter Bell | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.