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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University0.96+5.83vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.35+3.61vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.16+4.58vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.18+2.04vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.27+1.08vs Predicted
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6Tufts University0.80+1.69vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.51+1.65vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.83-3.65vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.59-3.90vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-0.82+3.39vs Predicted
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11Williams College-0.90+3.81vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-0.93+1.69vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.84-5.54vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42+1.72vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.05-4.17vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-1.77+0.43vs Predicted
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17Wesleyan University-1.83-0.31vs Predicted
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18Williams College-1.12-3.65vs Predicted
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19University of New Hampshire-1.41-3.90vs Predicted
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20Wesleyan University-2.87-0.94vs Predicted
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21University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.53-5.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.83Tufts University0.968.3%1st Place
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5.61Tufts University1.3510.8%1st Place
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7.58Tufts University1.167.2%1st Place
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6.04Tufts University1.189.7%1st Place
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6.08Tufts University1.279.2%1st Place
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7.69Tufts University0.805.6%1st Place
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8.65Tufts University0.515.1%1st Place
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4.35Tufts University1.8316.4%1st Place
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5.1Tufts University1.5912.5%1st Place
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13.39University of New Hampshire-0.821.5%1st Place
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14.81Williams College-0.900.4%1st Place
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13.69University of New Hampshire-0.931.1%1st Place
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7.46University of Vermont0.845.9%1st Place
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15.72University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.420.8%1st Place
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10.83University of Vermont-0.052.6%1st Place
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16.43University of New Hampshire-1.770.4%1st Place
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16.69Wesleyan University-1.830.4%1st Place
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14.35Williams College-1.120.7%1st Place
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15.1University of New Hampshire-1.410.8%1st Place
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19.06Wesleyan University-2.870.2%1st Place
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15.55University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.530.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Garrido | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wallace | 10.8% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larzelere | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Vogel | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annecy Kagan | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 16.4% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gus Macaulay | 12.5% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Lacoche | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Lucas Wiatrowski | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Cooper Smith | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andy Giaya | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 6.3% |
| Ella Towner | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Smits | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 16.8% | 10.4% |
| Sara Beth Bouchard | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 15.9% | 13.8% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 2.2% |
| Devyn Weed | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
| Benjamin Siegel | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 51.2% |
| Angelina Papa | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 6.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.