← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Tufts University1.16+6.43vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University1.27+4.08vs Predicted
-
3Tufts University1.18+3.08vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University0.96+2.79vs Predicted
-
5Tufts University1.83-0.55vs Predicted
-
6Tufts University1.35-0.43vs Predicted
-
7Tufts University1.59-1.90vs Predicted
-
8Tufts University0.80-0.45vs Predicted
-
9University of Vermont0.84-1.55vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont-0.05+0.74vs Predicted
-
11Tufts University0.51-2.35vs Predicted
-
12Williams College-0.90+2.73vs Predicted
-
13University of New Hampshire-0.82+0.43vs Predicted
-
14University of New Hampshire-0.93-0.37vs Predicted
-
15University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.53+0.60vs Predicted
-
16Williams College-1.12-1.56vs Predicted
-
17University of New Hampshire-1.41-1.74vs Predicted
-
18University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.42-2.18vs Predicted
-
19University of New Hampshire-1.77-2.51vs Predicted
-
20Wesleyan University-1.83-3.20vs Predicted
-
21Wesleyan University-2.87-2.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.43Tufts University1.166.7%1st Place
-
6.08Tufts University1.279.1%1st Place
-
6.08Tufts University1.189.6%1st Place
-
6.79Tufts University0.968.6%1st Place
-
4.45Tufts University1.8316.2%1st Place
-
5.57Tufts University1.3511.2%1st Place
-
5.1Tufts University1.5913.2%1st Place
-
7.55Tufts University0.805.1%1st Place
-
7.45University of Vermont0.845.6%1st Place
-
10.74University of Vermont-0.052.1%1st Place
-
8.65Tufts University0.515.7%1st Place
-
14.73Williams College-0.900.9%1st Place
-
13.43University of New Hampshire-0.821.3%1st Place
-
13.63University of New Hampshire-0.931.2%1st Place
-
15.6University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.530.6%1st Place
-
14.44Williams College-1.120.9%1st Place
-
15.26University of New Hampshire-1.410.7%1st Place
-
15.82University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.420.6%1st Place
-
16.49University of New Hampshire-1.770.4%1st Place
-
16.8Wesleyan University-1.830.3%1st Place
-
18.91Wesleyan University-2.870.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larzelere | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Garrido | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 16.2% | 16.7% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wallace | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gus Macaulay | 13.2% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Vogel | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Smith | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Towner | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Annecy Kagan | 5.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 3.4% |
| Jake Lacoche | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Lucas Wiatrowski | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 1.3% |
| Angelina Papa | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 5.4% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 2.9% |
| Devyn Weed | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 4.0% |
| Andy Giaya | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 6.9% |
| Ethan Smits | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 11.2% |
| Sara Beth Bouchard | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 16.0% | 13.9% |
| Benjamin Siegel | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 50.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.