Race 10A

delaware-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Rose von Eckartsberg 2.9% 4.7% 5.5% 5.9% 9.4% 10.1% 12.4% 13.9% 15.0% 13.9% 6.3%
Sophie Grigg 9.8% 12.4% 12.0% 13.9% 14.1% 13.9% 9.2% 7.8% 4.9% 1.9% 0.2%
Charlotte Stillman 12.0% 13.2% 13.7% 14.2% 14.2% 12.1% 10.4% 5.9% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Bryce Cogswell 30.6% 22.3% 19.1% 12.8% 7.9% 4.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Brooke Lorson 8.2% 9.6% 12.7% 12.0% 14.2% 13.9% 10.9% 9.2% 5.9% 2.8% 0.6%
Iain Shand 23.4% 22.2% 18.6% 14.8% 9.4% 6.9% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Mac Fitzgerald 3.2% 3.5% 3.9% 5.8% 7.2% 10.7% 12.7% 14.0% 16.2% 16.2% 6.7%
Logan Devaric 3.8% 4.2% 5.9% 7.8% 10.0% 10.9% 13.4% 13.8% 14.3% 10.9% 5.0%
Molly Carfagno 3.5% 4.8% 4.8% 7.0% 7.0% 9.2% 12.8% 15.6% 15.6% 12.8% 6.8%
Ella Dieterlen 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 3.0% 4.7% 7.8% 9.3% 16.0% 51.6%
Alice Kilkelly 1.5% 2.0% 2.4% 4.0% 4.4% 4.9% 8.6% 10.1% 15.0% 24.6% 22.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.