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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University0.70+6.57vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+1.80vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.25+3.23vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.42-0.63vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.32+1.07vs Predicted
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6William and Mary-0.36+4.91vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.95+0.53vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.16-1.50vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland-0.08+1.41vs Predicted
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10Rollins College0.95-3.00vs Predicted
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11Hampton University-0.10-0.75vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79-7.23vs Predicted
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13American University-0.91-0.90vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University-0.87-1.83vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech-0.52-3.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.57George Washington University0.705.1%1st Place
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3.8Georgetown University2.2020.8%1st Place
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6.23U. S. Naval Academy1.257.0%1st Place
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3.37Georgetown University2.4222.0%1st Place
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6.07U. S. Naval Academy1.328.2%1st Place
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10.91William and Mary-0.361.4%1st Place
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7.53Old Dominion University0.953.9%1st Place
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6.5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.166.2%1st Place
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10.41University of Maryland-0.081.7%1st Place
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7.0Rollins College0.956.6%1st Place
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10.25Hampton University-0.102.1%1st Place
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4.77St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7911.8%1st Place
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12.1American University-0.911.0%1st Place
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12.17Christopher Newport University-0.871.1%1st Place
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11.31Virginia Tech-0.521.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tryg van Wyk | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Piper Holthus | 20.8% | 16.7% | 15.8% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh Carty | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Enzo Menditto | 22.0% | 20.6% | 17.4% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Dominguez | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Eric Johnson | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 16.6% | 10.7% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Henry Haddon | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Jared Cohen | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 8.5% |
| Milo Miller | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Tommaso Ciaglia | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 7.5% |
| Landon Cormie | 11.8% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Anika Liner | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 18.4% | 27.5% |
| Walter Roou | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 18.4% | 28.0% |
| Matt Averyt | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 15.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.