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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.62+6.87vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.67+5.70vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+4.23vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.74+3.42vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida3.15+4.82vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+0.35vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.00vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.69-0.59vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.63+3.07vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.49-1.48vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.49-2.50vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.51-3.43vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont3.24-3.13vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+1.64vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.77-3.54vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.04-1.67vs Predicted
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17Washington College1.81-1.95vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College2.78-6.41vs Predicted
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19Queen's University0.01-0.09vs Predicted
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20University of Miami2.28-6.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.87College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.23Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.42Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.82University of South Florida3.150.0%1st Place
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6.35St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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8.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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7.41Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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12.07SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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8.52Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.5Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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8.57Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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9.87University of Vermont3.240.0%1st Place
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15.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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11.46Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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14.33Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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15.05Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
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11.59Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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18.91Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
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13.68University of Miami2.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Johnstone | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Michael Grove | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marlena Fauer | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 10.8% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 0.9% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Scott Houck | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Post | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Crane | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 24.7% | 9.6% |
| Henry Vogel | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 16.4% | 16.0% | 4.1% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 15.5% | 18.6% | 7.2% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Alex Smyth | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 10.0% | 73.2% |
| Ben Jassin | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.