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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.69+6.57vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.49+6.52vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+3.42vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.77+7.58vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.28+8.50vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.77vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.51+1.73vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.62-0.15vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.15+0.79vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.74-2.58vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.82-3.82vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-4.06vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+2.84vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.04+0.34vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.81+0.01vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.63-3.88vs Predicted
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17Harvard University3.49-8.62vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.01+0.95vs Predicted
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19University of Vermont3.24-9.52vs Predicted
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20Eckerd College2.78-8.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.57Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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8.52Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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6.42St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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11.58Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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13.5University of Miami2.280.0%1st Place
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7.77U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.73Georgetown University3.510.0%1st Place
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7.85College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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9.79University of South Florida3.150.0%1st Place
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7.42Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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7.18Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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15.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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14.34Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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15.01Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
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12.12SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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8.38Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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18.95Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
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9.48University of Vermont3.240.0%1st Place
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11.62Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judge Ryan | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
| Ben Jassin | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 10.4% | 2.7% |
| Michael Grove | 6.9% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Post | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Marlena Fauer | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 11.4% | 16.5% | 24.8% | 10.9% |
| Alex Reynolds | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 5.0% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 20.7% | 8.3% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Brian Drumm | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Alex Smyth | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 13.2% | 70.6% |
| Olivia Crane | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Robert Savoie | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.