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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.62+6.86vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+4.28vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.49+5.60vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.15+5.91vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.63+7.00vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.83vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.49+1.76vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.82-1.09vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.77+2.45vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.69-2.34vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-3.18vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.78-0.32vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.51-4.34vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.81+1.12vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.74-7.53vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont3.24-6.51vs Predicted
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17University of Miami2.28-3.56vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-2.29vs Predicted
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19Fordham University2.04-4.64vs Predicted
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20Queen's University0.01-1.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.86College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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6.28St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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8.6Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.91University of South Florida3.150.0%1st Place
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12.0SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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7.83U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.76Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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6.91Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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11.45Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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7.66Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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11.68Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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8.66Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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15.12Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
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7.47Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.49University of Vermont3.240.1%1st Place
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13.44University of Miami2.280.0%1st Place
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15.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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14.36Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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19.0Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Johnstone | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 10.5% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Julia Paxton | 2.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 0.9% |
| Michael Grove | 7.0% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Judge Ryan | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Robert Savoie | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 0.4% |
| Alex Post | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 15.7% | 20.3% | 7.1% |
| Marlena Fauer | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Crane | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ben Jassin | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 2.5% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 25.7% | 10.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 16.9% | 15.0% | 3.5% |
| Alex Smyth | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 10.4% | 74.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.