← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+6.65vs Predicted
-
2Yale University3.74+5.48vs Predicted
-
3Brown University3.69+4.75vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+3.75vs Predicted
-
5Roger Williams University2.77+6.44vs Predicted
-
6University of Miami2.28+7.58vs Predicted
-
7Dartmouth College3.49+1.83vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University3.82-1.01vs Predicted
-
9Harvard University3.49-0.64vs Predicted
-
10University of South Florida3.15-0.05vs Predicted
-
11Georgetown University3.51-2.56vs Predicted
-
12Eckerd College2.78-0.30vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College2.63-0.55vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+1.64vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont3.24-5.47vs Predicted
-
16College of Charleston3.62-8.10vs Predicted
-
17St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-10.83vs Predicted
-
18Fordham University2.04-3.64vs Predicted
-
19Washington College1.81-3.96vs Predicted
-
20Queen's University0.01-1.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.65U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
7.48Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
-
7.75Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
-
7.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
-
11.44Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
-
13.58University of Miami2.280.0%1st Place
-
8.83Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
-
6.99Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
8.36Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
-
9.95University of South Florida3.150.0%1st Place
-
8.44Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
-
11.7Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
-
12.45SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
-
15.64U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
-
9.53University of Vermont3.240.1%1st Place
-
7.9College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
-
6.17St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
-
14.36Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
-
15.04Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
-
19.0Queen's University0.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Marlena Fauer | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Ben Jassin | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% |
| Scott Houck | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Alex Post | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Robert Savoie | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| Julia Paxton | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 1.1% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 15.7% | 23.4% | 10.5% |
| Olivia Crane | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 14.8% | 15.7% | 3.7% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 15.9% | 21.3% | 6.0% |
| Alex Smyth | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 9.8% | 74.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.