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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College1.84+3.55vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.24+6.62vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.99+1.01vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85+2.85vs Predicted
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5McGill University-0.53+5.06vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College0.70+1.12vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.69-0.03vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.69-3.22vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island0.12-0.34vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.97-5.99vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College1.71-6.58vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University-0.17-2.53vs Predicted
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13Boston University-1.31-1.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.55Bowdoin College1.8413.5%1st Place
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8.62University of Vermont0.242.9%1st Place
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4.01Brown University1.9917.1%1st Place
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6.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.855.4%1st Place
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10.06McGill University-0.531.6%1st Place
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7.12Dartmouth College0.705.1%1st Place
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6.97Tufts University0.695.3%1st Place
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4.78Brown University1.6913.0%1st Place
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8.66University of Rhode Island0.122.5%1st Place
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4.01Roger Williams University1.9716.1%1st Place
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4.42Dartmouth College1.7114.3%1st Place
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9.47Northeastern University-0.172.5%1st Place
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11.49Boston University-1.310.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Russler | 13.5% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 5.1% |
| Katharine Doble | 17.1% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Conneely | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Tessa Hason | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 15.8% | 23.6% | 18.3% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Samantha Jensen | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Katherine McNamara | 13.0% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 6.2% |
| Lucy Meagher | 16.1% | 17.5% | 14.8% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| bella casaretto | 14.3% | 12.8% | 15.2% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sylvia Burns | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 19.2% | 12.8% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 16.8% | 53.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.