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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.42+5.95vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+6.06vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.75+4.69vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.30+2.26vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.62+7.13vs Predicted
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6University of Miami1.93+6.06vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.91+0.18vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.76vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+3.44vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.21+2.37vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.41-1.24vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.60-3.63vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.08-2.02vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.81-1.57vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.56-5.31vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.18-10.12vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.22-7.83vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.90-7.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.95Yale University2.429.8%1st Place
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8.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.486.3%1st Place
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7.69Dartmouth College2.758.3%1st Place
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6.26Stanford University3.3010.8%1st Place
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12.13Fordham University1.622.7%1st Place
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12.06University of Miami1.932.5%1st Place
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7.18Brown University2.918.0%1st Place
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8.76St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.5%1st Place
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12.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.132.2%1st Place
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12.37Tulane University2.212.5%1st Place
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9.76Georgetown University2.414.2%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Naval Academy2.607.0%1st Place
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10.98Bowdoin College2.083.2%1st Place
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12.43University of Rhode Island1.811.9%1st Place
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9.69Boston College2.564.1%1st Place
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5.88Harvard University3.1812.2%1st Place
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9.17Tufts University2.225.6%1st Place
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10.81University of Pennsylvania1.903.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 14.8% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 11.7% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Dana Haig | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 15.5% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 16.2% |
| Scott Mais | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Christopher Lukens | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.5% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 14.1% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.