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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.75+6.59vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.42+4.86vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.91+3.81vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+4.19vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.21+7.56vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.18-0.24vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.41+2.69vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.72vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.30-2.79vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+2.11vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.62+1.38vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.81+0.27vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.22-3.85vs Predicted
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14University of Miami1.93-2.30vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-6.07vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.08-4.86vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.56-6.92vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.90-7.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.59Dartmouth College2.758.3%1st Place
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6.86Yale University2.428.9%1st Place
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6.81Brown University2.919.8%1st Place
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8.19U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.486.8%1st Place
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12.56Tulane University2.212.1%1st Place
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5.76Harvard University3.1811.7%1st Place
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9.69Georgetown University2.414.0%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Naval Academy2.606.3%1st Place
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6.21Stanford University3.3010.2%1st Place
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12.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.132.8%1st Place
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12.38Fordham University1.622.3%1st Place
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12.27University of Rhode Island1.812.5%1st Place
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9.15Tufts University2.225.1%1st Place
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11.7University of Miami1.932.4%1st Place
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8.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.575.1%1st Place
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11.14Bowdoin College2.083.4%1st Place
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10.08Boston College2.564.9%1st Place
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10.87University of Pennsylvania1.903.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddie Hawkins | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Carmen Cowles | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 15.9% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.7% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Scott Mais | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Dana Haig | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 13.4% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 15.7% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 15.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Christopher Lukens | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.