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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island2.78+7.35vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.38+6.07vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.23+7.34vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.38+4.26vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College1.95+5.94vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.61+0.85vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.50vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.51+0.07vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.12+3.85vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.81+1.67vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-2.24vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.20-3.42vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.89-0.45vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.36-1.20vs Predicted
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15Florida State University1.95-3.24vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.05-9.94vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-9.09vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University2.75-10.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.35University of Rhode Island2.786.3%1st Place
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8.07Dartmouth College2.386.5%1st Place
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10.34College of Charleston2.233.8%1st Place
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8.26Bowdoin College2.386.8%1st Place
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10.94Connecticut College1.953.1%1st Place
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6.85Stanford University2.619.6%1st Place
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9.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.165.5%1st Place
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8.07SUNY Maritime College2.516.6%1st Place
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12.85University of Michigan1.121.7%1st Place
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11.67Old Dominion University1.813.5%1st Place
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8.76U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.177.1%1st Place
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8.58Boston College2.206.7%1st Place
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12.55Fordham University1.891.9%1st Place
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12.8University of Wisconsin1.362.3%1st Place
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11.76Florida State University1.952.2%1st Place
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6.06Harvard University3.0511.2%1st Place
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7.91University of California at Santa Barbara2.048.0%1st Place
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7.69Georgetown University2.757.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| William Michels | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Brandon Geller | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Walter Henry | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| Benton Amthor | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 19.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 11.6% |
| Daniel Unangst | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 14.3% |
| Reed Weston | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 18.8% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 10.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Chris Kayda | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.