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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+6.92vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.85+5.59vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.12+7.21vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.32+5.02vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.25+4.82vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+2.25vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.42+2.23vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.82+2.86vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.79+1.29vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.38-1.81vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.53+1.15vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.78-1.04vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.54-0.29vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.73-8.02vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.40-6.83vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University-1.38-4.10vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.46-8.79vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.73-8.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.657.6%1st Place
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7.59Brown University2.858.4%1st Place
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10.21Tufts University2.124.9%1st Place
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9.02University of Miami2.325.7%1st Place
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9.82U. S. Naval Academy2.254.5%1st Place
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8.25Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.9%1st Place
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9.23University of Pennsylvania2.425.2%1st Place
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10.86George Washington University1.824.2%1st Place
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10.29Boston University1.793.8%1st Place
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8.19Cornell University2.386.7%1st Place
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12.15Fordham University1.532.6%1st Place
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10.96North Carolina State University1.783.5%1st Place
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12.71University of South Florida1.542.2%1st Place
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5.98Yale University2.7311.9%1st Place
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8.17Roger Williams University2.407.4%1st Place
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11.9Jacksonville University-1.383.6%1st Place
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8.21Tulane University2.466.6%1st Place
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9.55Webb Institute1.734.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Connor Nelson | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Gavin McJones | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% |
| Tyler Mowry | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% |
| Bridget Green | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Michael Burns | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 17.8% |
| Adam Larson | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 20.0% |
| Jack Egan | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Emily Allen | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 15.0% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Rayne Duff | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.