← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University2.61+5.64vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University3.05+3.91vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College2.51+4.98vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University2.75+3.68vs Predicted
-
5Boston College2.20+3.57vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College2.38+2.20vs Predicted
-
7College of Charleston2.23+3.12vs Predicted
-
8Florida State University1.95+3.76vs Predicted
-
9University of Rhode Island2.78-0.70vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University1.89+2.48vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-2.05vs Predicted
-
12Bowdoin College2.38-3.92vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-4.89vs Predicted
-
14Old Dominion University1.81-2.42vs Predicted
-
15Connecticut College1.95-4.19vs Predicted
-
16University of Wisconsin1.36-3.01vs Predicted
-
17University of Michigan1.12-3.99vs Predicted
-
18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-8.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.64Stanford University2.619.3%1st Place
-
5.91Harvard University3.0512.3%1st Place
-
7.98SUNY Maritime College2.517.2%1st Place
-
7.68Georgetown University2.757.0%1st Place
-
8.57Boston College2.206.0%1st Place
-
8.2Dartmouth College2.388.0%1st Place
-
10.12College of Charleston2.235.0%1st Place
-
11.76Florida State University1.952.9%1st Place
-
8.3University of Rhode Island2.785.6%1st Place
-
12.48Fordham University1.892.5%1st Place
-
8.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.2%1st Place
-
8.08Bowdoin College2.386.9%1st Place
-
8.11University of California at Santa Barbara2.046.2%1st Place
-
11.58Old Dominion University1.813.2%1st Place
-
10.81Connecticut College1.953.9%1st Place
-
12.99University of Wisconsin1.362.1%1st Place
-
13.01University of Michigan1.121.9%1st Place
-
9.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 12.3% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| William Michels | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Brandon Geller | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 11.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 16.0% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% |
| Walter Henry | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% |
| Reed Weston | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 18.8% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 19.7% |
| Will Murray | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.