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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+7.20vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.89+10.58vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.38+5.05vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.05+2.06vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.23+5.24vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.20+2.40vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.78+1.36vs Predicted
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8Florida State University1.95+3.73vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.75-1.33vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.81+1.40vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.49vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-3.99vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.61-6.07vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-5.10vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College2.51-6.84vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.12-3.08vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.95-5.95vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.36-5.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.2Dartmouth College2.385.9%1st Place
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12.58Fordham University1.892.1%1st Place
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8.05Bowdoin College2.387.8%1st Place
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6.06Harvard University3.0513.0%1st Place
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10.24College of Charleston2.234.8%1st Place
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8.4Boston College2.206.7%1st Place
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8.36University of Rhode Island2.786.0%1st Place
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11.73Florida State University1.953.5%1st Place
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7.67Georgetown University2.758.1%1st Place
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11.4Old Dominion University1.813.4%1st Place
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9.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.9%1st Place
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8.01University of California at Santa Barbara2.047.0%1st Place
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6.93Stanford University2.618.3%1st Place
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8.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.3%1st Place
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8.16SUNY Maritime College2.516.3%1st Place
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12.92University of Michigan1.121.9%1st Place
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11.05Connecticut College1.952.8%1st Place
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12.84University of Wisconsin1.362.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 17.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 13.0% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Brandon Geller | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 9.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 11.0% |
| Will Murray | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Benton Amthor | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 19.6% |
| Walter Henry | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Reed Weston | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 18.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.