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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+6.82vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.38+6.45vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+5.09vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.05+2.13vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.89+7.70vs Predicted
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6Florida State University1.95+5.66vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.20+1.60vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.51+0.15vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.38-0.93vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.92+0.70vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.36+1.73vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston2.49-4.34vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.61-5.99vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-5.14vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-3.45vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island2.78-7.76vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.12-4.06vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University1.81-6.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.82Georgetown University2.757.1%1st Place
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8.45Bowdoin College2.386.5%1st Place
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8.09University of California at Santa Barbara2.047.4%1st Place
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6.13Harvard University3.0512.2%1st Place
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12.7Fordham University1.891.9%1st Place
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11.66Florida State University1.952.4%1st Place
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8.6Boston College2.205.9%1st Place
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8.15SUNY Maritime College2.516.6%1st Place
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8.07Dartmouth College2.387.0%1st Place
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10.7Connecticut College1.923.5%1st Place
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12.73University of Wisconsin1.362.5%1st Place
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7.66College of Charleston2.497.7%1st Place
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7.01Stanford University2.618.3%1st Place
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8.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.5%1st Place
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11.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.593.2%1st Place
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8.24University of Rhode Island2.787.0%1st Place
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12.94University of Michigan1.121.9%1st Place
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11.64Old Dominion University1.813.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 12.2% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 17.8% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 10.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Benton Amthor | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| William Michels | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% |
| Reed Weston | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 16.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 18.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.