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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.05+5.23vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.78+6.20vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17+5.92vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.20+4.71vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.61+1.91vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.75+2.01vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.89+5.46vs Predicted
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8Florida State University1.95+3.57vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-0.92vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.36+2.89vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.49-3.42vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.92-1.40vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.51-4.67vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.38-5.88vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.12-1.83vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.81-4.43vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.38-8.80vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-6.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.23Harvard University3.0511.0%1st Place
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8.2University of Rhode Island2.787.0%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.175.0%1st Place
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8.71Boston College2.206.6%1st Place
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6.91Stanford University2.618.1%1st Place
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8.01Georgetown University2.756.7%1st Place
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12.46Fordham University1.892.4%1st Place
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11.57Florida State University1.953.2%1st Place
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8.08University of California at Santa Barbara2.047.4%1st Place
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12.89University of Wisconsin1.362.3%1st Place
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7.58College of Charleston2.498.0%1st Place
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10.6Connecticut College1.923.6%1st Place
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8.33SUNY Maritime College2.516.5%1st Place
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8.12Dartmouth College2.386.9%1st Place
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13.17University of Michigan1.121.1%1st Place
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11.57Old Dominion University1.813.5%1st Place
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8.2Bowdoin College2.387.6%1st Place
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11.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.593.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlain McGranahan | 11.0% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 15.7% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 9.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Reed Weston | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 17.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| William Michels | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 20.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.