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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.90+6.16vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.89+10.59vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+5.27vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+3.77vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.40+4.06vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.38+2.16vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.48+0.40vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.49-0.28vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-1.19vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-1.49vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.40vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.81-0.09vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.51-4.92vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.36-1.07vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.95-3.74vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.12-2.89vs Predicted
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17Florida State University1.95-5.17vs Predicted
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18Stanford University2.64-10.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.16Dartmouth College2.908.8%1st Place
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12.59Fordham University1.891.9%1st Place
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8.27University of Rhode Island2.787.3%1st Place
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7.77Georgetown University2.757.1%1st Place
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9.06Boston College2.405.5%1st Place
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8.16Bowdoin College2.386.9%1st Place
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7.4Harvard University2.488.2%1st Place
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7.72College of Charleston2.497.0%1st Place
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7.81University of California at Santa Barbara2.047.6%1st Place
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8.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.326.0%1st Place
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9.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.164.9%1st Place
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11.91Old Dominion University1.812.6%1st Place
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8.08SUNY Maritime College2.517.0%1st Place
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12.93University of Wisconsin1.362.2%1st Place
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11.26Connecticut College1.953.9%1st Place
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13.11University of Michigan1.121.9%1st Place
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11.83Florida State University1.953.4%1st Place
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7.84Stanford University2.647.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Michaela O'Brien | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Will Murray | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| Noyl Odom | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 10.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Reed Weston | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 20.2% |
| Walter Henry | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% |
| Joe Serpa | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 19.8% |
| Mateo Rodriguez | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 11.1% |
| Hannah Freeman | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.