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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.91+4.75vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.60+5.29vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.22+4.86vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.90+5.65vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.43+6.19vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.09+2.74vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.38+0.77vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.54vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.04+0.33vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.65+0.77vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.09+0.66vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.20+0.87vs Predicted
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13University of Miami1.93-2.47vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.42-8.22vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-3.90vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13-4.95vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.34-4.64vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.86-8.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75Brown University2.9112.7%1st Place
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7.29U. S. Naval Academy2.608.5%1st Place
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7.86Tufts University2.226.9%1st Place
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9.65University of Pennsylvania1.904.3%1st Place
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11.19Webb Institute1.433.0%1st Place
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8.74Roger Williams University2.095.7%1st Place
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7.77Cornell University2.387.1%1st Place
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7.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.4%1st Place
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9.33Tulane University2.045.1%1st Place
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10.77Boston University1.653.7%1st Place
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11.66North Carolina State University1.092.9%1st Place
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12.87Jacksonville University1.202.0%1st Place
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10.53University of Miami1.934.0%1st Place
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5.78Yale University2.4211.9%1st Place
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11.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.9%1st Place
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11.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.133.4%1st Place
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12.36Eckerd College1.342.4%1st Place
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9.85George Washington University1.865.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| Micky Munns | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.7% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 20.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% |
| Dana Haig | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.8% |
| matthew Monts | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 16.2% |
| Owen Timms | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.