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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.72vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.08+7.61vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.41+5.38vs Predicted
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4Florida State University1.62+7.02vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.38+2.60vs Predicted
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6U. S. Military Academy2.05+2.78vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.56+1.41vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.29+1.42vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.57+2.96vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.30-5.00vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-4.30vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.81-1.02vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.62-2.14vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-3.65vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.97vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-5.15vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.14-4.47vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.50-4.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.72Harvard University3.1815.3%1st Place
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9.61Bowdoin College2.084.2%1st Place
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8.38Georgetown University2.416.2%1st Place
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11.02Florida State University1.623.0%1st Place
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7.6College of Charleston2.387.4%1st Place
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8.78U. S. Military Academy2.057.0%1st Place
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8.41Boston College2.566.7%1st Place
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9.42Connecticut College2.294.5%1st Place
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11.96Old Dominion University1.572.5%1st Place
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5.0Stanford University3.3013.8%1st Place
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6.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.4810.2%1st Place
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10.98University of Rhode Island1.812.9%1st Place
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10.86Fordham University1.623.1%1st Place
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10.35SUNY Maritime College1.883.4%1st Place
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10.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.6%1st Place
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10.85University of California at Santa Barbara1.442.9%1st Place
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12.53University of Wisconsin1.141.8%1st Place
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13.8University of Michigan0.501.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 15.3% | 16.1% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% |
| Scott Mais | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| James Paul | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 10.4% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 13.8% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% |
| Charlie Herrick | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 14.5% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 29.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.