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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.22+6.77vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.90+7.31vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.09+5.74vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+6.92vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+6.13vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.20+6.64vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.04+2.37vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.77vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.91-3.22vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.42-4.24vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.60-3.91vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.86-2.09vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.38-5.36vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.65-2.95vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University1.09-3.44vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.43-4.89vs Predicted
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17University of Miami1.57-5.41vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College1.34-5.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.77Tufts University2.227.3%1st Place
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9.31University of Pennsylvania1.905.3%1st Place
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8.74Roger Williams University2.096.2%1st Place
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10.92Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.133.1%1st Place
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11.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.413.4%1st Place
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12.64Jacksonville University1.201.8%1st Place
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9.37Tulane University2.044.2%1st Place
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7.23St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.1%1st Place
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5.78Brown University2.9112.4%1st Place
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5.76Yale University2.4212.9%1st Place
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7.09U. S. Naval Academy2.608.8%1st Place
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9.91George Washington University1.865.6%1st Place
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7.64Cornell University2.386.8%1st Place
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11.05Boston University1.652.8%1st Place
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11.56North Carolina State University1.093.0%1st Place
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11.11Webb Institute1.433.2%1st Place
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11.59University of Miami1.572.8%1st Place
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12.41Eckerd College1.342.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Javier Garcon | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Dana Haig | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 17.6% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 12.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 12.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Owen Timms | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% |
| Hayden Earl | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Micky Munns | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.7% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% |
| Richard McCann | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.1% |
| matthew Monts | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 15.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.