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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.77vs Predicted
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2Florida State University1.62+8.86vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.29+6.24vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+2.72vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.38+2.67vs Predicted
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6U. S. Military Academy2.05+2.89vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.20vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.30-3.02vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.62+1.82vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.41-1.94vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-1.04vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.38+0.23vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.08-3.63vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.14-1.62vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.57-3.29vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-4.96vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.56-8.79vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.50-4.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.77Harvard University3.1815.6%1st Place
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10.86Florida State University1.623.1%1st Place
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9.24Connecticut College2.295.1%1st Place
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6.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.4%1st Place
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7.67College of Charleston2.386.7%1st Place
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8.89U. S. Military Academy2.055.1%1st Place
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10.2SUNY Maritime College1.884.0%1st Place
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4.98Stanford University3.3015.2%1st Place
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10.82Fordham University1.623.8%1st Place
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8.06Georgetown University2.415.7%1st Place
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9.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.7%1st Place
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12.23University of Rhode Island1.381.9%1st Place
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9.37Bowdoin College2.084.2%1st Place
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12.38University of Wisconsin1.142.6%1st Place
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11.71Old Dominion University1.572.8%1st Place
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11.04University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.0%1st Place
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8.21Boston College2.566.7%1st Place
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13.9University of Michigan0.501.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 15.6% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Joey Meagher | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| James Paul | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.2% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 15.2% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% |
| Scott Mais | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| Jonathan Riley | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 11.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 13.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.3% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 29.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.