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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.90+8.42vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+5.52vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.42+2.80vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.09+4.65vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+5.83vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.33vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.60+0.18vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.91-2.25vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.09+2.76vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.86+0.13vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.20+1.80vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.34+0.11vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.22-5.28vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-2.66vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.04-5.87vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.43-5.13vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.65-5.85vs Predicted
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18University of Miami1.57-6.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.42University of Pennsylvania1.904.9%1st Place
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7.52Cornell University2.388.2%1st Place
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5.8Yale University2.4212.3%1st Place
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8.65Roger Williams University2.095.1%1st Place
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10.83Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.132.9%1st Place
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7.33St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.9%1st Place
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7.18U. S. Naval Academy2.607.9%1st Place
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5.75Brown University2.9113.0%1st Place
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11.76North Carolina State University1.093.2%1st Place
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10.13George Washington University1.864.0%1st Place
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12.8Jacksonville University1.202.0%1st Place
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12.11Eckerd College1.342.9%1st Place
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7.72Tufts University2.227.8%1st Place
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11.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.412.7%1st Place
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9.13Tulane University2.045.2%1st Place
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10.87Webb Institute1.433.1%1st Place
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11.15Boston University1.653.8%1st Place
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11.5University of Miami1.573.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Garcon | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Hayden Earl | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 12.3% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Dana Haig | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.9% |
| Owen Timms | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 18.9% |
| matthew Monts | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 14.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% |
| Micky Munns | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% |
| Richard McCann | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.