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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+5.94vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.75+4.39vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.18+1.88vs Predicted
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4Florida State University1.62+7.13vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.08+4.69vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.56+2.48vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.38+0.86vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.30-2.96vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.88+1.32vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.62+0.76vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.29-1.76vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.81-1.13vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-2.00vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.57-2.12vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-5.06vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University2.41-7.78vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.05-1.32vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.14-5.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.2%1st Place
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6.39Dartmouth College2.7510.3%1st Place
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4.88Harvard University3.1814.4%1st Place
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11.13Florida State University1.622.5%1st Place
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9.69Bowdoin College2.084.8%1st Place
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8.48Boston College2.565.0%1st Place
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7.86College of Charleston2.387.1%1st Place
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5.04Stanford University3.3015.2%1st Place
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10.32SUNY Maritime College1.883.5%1st Place
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10.76Fordham University1.624.3%1st Place
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9.24Connecticut College2.295.0%1st Place
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10.87University of Rhode Island1.812.7%1st Place
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11.0University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.2%1st Place
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11.88Old Dominion University1.572.3%1st Place
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9.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.1%1st Place
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8.22Georgetown University2.415.5%1st Place
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15.68University of Michigan0.050.6%1st Place
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12.69University of Wisconsin1.142.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.4% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joey Meagher | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 5.3% |
| Christopher Lukens | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 15.2% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 4.3% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 4.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Scott Mais | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 53.2% |
| Charlie Herrick | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 11.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.